How the 2024 Presidential Election Affects the Housing Market

Introduction: Election Year Drama—Should You Really Wait to Buy or Sell?

Election years—no matter how many you’ve lived through, they always feel like a wildcard. The stakes seem high, and with all the noise, you might be wondering if it’s smart to make a move or sit tight until the dust settles. Here’s the truth: presidential elections generally have a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But that doesn’t stop people from getting anxious about how an election could impact their decision to buy or sell a home. Let’s cut through the hype and see what history tells us about how elections actually affect home sales, prices, and mortgage rates.

How Do Elections Impact the Housing Market?

Home Sales: A Brief Pause, Then Back to Business

Election years can bring a bit of a chill to home sales—at least temporarily. Historically, November tends to see a slight slowdown in U.S. home sales during election years. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, notes that while home sales generally stay steady throughout election years, November often dips as buyers and sellers hit pause, unsure of how the election’s outcome might shake out. But don’t let that spook you. According to data from HUD and NAR, home sales bounce back in December and typically climb higher the following year after nine of the last 11 presidential elections. In other words, the November slowdown is a short-lived blip, not a long-term trend.

Home Prices: Stronger Than You Might Expect

Here’s where it gets interesting: contrary to what you might think, home prices don’t just tread water in election years—they often rise. Bankrate’s analysis of Case-Shiller data shows that home prices appreciated by an average of 4.84% in election years since 1987, compared to 4.44% in non-election years. While the difference might seem small, it debunks the myth that elections negatively impact home prices. The reality? Buyers still need homes, and sellers still want to sell, regardless of who’s running for office.

Let’s not forget the outliers, though. The 2008 election year saw home prices plummet by 12%, but let’s be real—this had nothing to do with the election and everything to do with the housing bubble burst and global financial crisis. On the flip side, 2021 saw an 18.9% surge in home prices, thanks to pandemic-fueled demand and rock-bottom mortgage rates, not because of political shifts.

Mortgage Rates: The Real Driver Behind Homebuyer Decisions

If there’s one thing that really sways homebuyer decisions, it’s mortgage rates—not election outcomes. Historically, mortgage rates have declined from July to November in eight of the past 11 presidential elections, according to Freddie Mac. And what about after the election? Most forecasts suggest rates will ease slightly through the rest of 2024 and into 2025. Lower rates mean lower monthly payments, making homes more affordable and enticing more buyers into the market. But beware: as rates dip, competition heats up. Expect bidding wars and fewer concessions, as everyone rushes to lock in those lower rates.

Myth Busting: Elections Don’t Control the Housing Market

Presidential candidates love to pitch their grand economic plans, promising to revamp everything from jobs to housing. But here’s the kicker: economists generally agree that elections have little to no direct influence over the housing sector. Sure, they’ll try to convince you otherwise—after all, it’s election season. But don’t buy into the hype. The housing market moves on fundamentals like supply and demand, interest rates, and consumer confidence, not political promises.

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Final Thoughts: Focus on What Really Matters

So, should you buy or sell during an election year? The answer isn’t black and white, but it’s clear that elections aren’t the housing market boogeyman they’re often made out to be. The market may seem a bit confusing right now, but with the right information and a focus on local data, you can make confident decisions. Remember, the best move is the one that aligns with your personal goals, not the political calendar.

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FAQs: Elections and the Housing Market

1. Do home sales usually drop during election years? Yes, there’s typically a slight slowdown in November, but home sales often bounce back in December and usually increase the following year.

2. How do home prices react to presidential elections? Historically, home prices have appreciated slightly more in election years compared to non-election years, debunking the myth that elections negatively impact home prices.

3. What happens to mortgage rates during election years? Mortgage rates have historically declined from July to November in most presidential elections, making it a potentially good time to buy.

4. Should I wait until after the election to buy or sell a home? Not necessarily. The impact of elections on the housing market is usually minor and short-lived. Focus on your personal situation and market conditions.

5. Do presidential elections directly influence the housing market? Economists generally agree that elections have little direct impact on the housing market. Key drivers remain interest rates, supply and demand, and overall economic conditions.